Announcement

Collapse

Welcome to the www.Britmovie.co.uk forum

If this is your first time on the new forum since March 7th, 2017, please re-register with us once more.
Paypal contributions for the care and feeding of the forum may be made here:
PayPal Donations

The old bulletin board archive can be found here:
http://filmdope.com/forums/
See more
See less

Met Office gets it wrong again

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Met Office gets it wrong again

    I was looking at the Met Office forecast forecast for the last couple of days.No worry I was told the snows not going to reach here.Look out the window this morning and snow is tumbling down.If they had got the forecast correct I would have gritted the forecourt last night.I also wouldn't have bought a ticket for the cinema tomorrow.The Met Office are useless.They need to get a new piece of seaweed.

  • #2
    Michael Fish aside, weather forecasting seems to be much less reliable now than it was 30-40 years ago.

    Given all the modern technology they have at their disposal these days...frankly, I'm puzzled.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by orpheum View Post
      I was looking at the Met Office forecast forecast for the last couple of days.No worry I was told the snows not going to reach here.Look out the window this morning and snow is tumbling down.If they had got the forecast correct I would have gritted the forecourt last night.I also wouldn't have bought a ticket for the cinema tomorrow.The Met Office are useless.They need to get a new piece of seaweed.
      Hang up a piece of seaweed outside to tell the weather.
      When it's wet - it's raining
      When it's white - it's snowing or frosty
      When you can't see it - it's foggy



      Steve

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by narabdela View Post
        Michael Fish aside, weather forecasting seems to be much less reliable now than it was 30-40 years ago.

        Given all the modern technology they have at their disposal these days...frankly, I'm puzzled.
        The Met Office actually do an amazing job.
        It's the weather that's unreliable

        Which forecast did you look at orpheum?
        You can never expect an area forecast to be accurate, not in these islands of ours

        Steve


        Comment


        • #5
          The Met Office actually do an amazing job.
          It's the weather that's unreliable

          Which forecast did you look at orpheum?
          You can never expect an area forecast to be accurate, not in these islands of ours
          Correct. The UK's weather is really complex, because there are so many factors - not just whats coming across the Atlantic, but also from the North Polar and what happens in Europe, plus a huge amount of sea.

          The Met Office claim that their 4 day forecast is as reliable as their 1 day was 30 years ago, and thats not surprising. As this article points out, forecasting exact rainfall patterns are hard, and since snow is basically cold rain, being able to tell you exactly where that cold front hits possible rain isn't that easy, hence the uncertainty with snow at a very local level. Actually, the forecast was spot on with us this morning - it snowed a lot during the night, and our dog went nuts (he's six months old, so its his first snow!).

          The article also points to two possible problems with how we consume forecasts - confirmation bias/poor memory and icon based systems. We will seldom remember when the forecast is spot on, but always remember when its wrong, and even when its correct, we can misinterpret or misremember. Michael Fish didn't say that that there wasn't going to be a great storm - he said that there wasn't going to be a hurricane. And there wasn't. But, as a very interesting programme on BBC News explained the other day, at that time, there simply wasn't the technology or knowledge to predict what was actually going on - the system that developed and its effect just wasn't visible at that time. We tend to judge todays forecasts by often very old and often badly remembered forecasts, and since people actually dont know much about how weather actually works, we can often condemn forecasters without any kind of context.

          And, as this chap points out (and thats a very good blog, btw), weather icons on websites are pretty crude, and since a lot of them are based on computer forecasts of forecasts, they can really vary. I know that Alexa can be a bit dodgy on the chances of rain, Weather Underground isn't bad (and an excellent site), and the Dark Skies app is very good. The Met Office one is mostly fine. Since they are all derived from Met Office data, its down to the processing. And when you get down to the very local level, its tough.

          I love Windy.com - it follows on in a way from the Earth website, which uses supercomputer data to show global wind patterns, etc (a great screensaver, btw), but now you can have much the same data at a more local/global level, but in a way that looks like Google Earth or Flightrader24.com (a great site) - you can plot hurricanes in mid Atlantic, see storms over Scotland, etc, plus a forecast. Awesome.

          And a thumbs up for Wx.com - US based, but great graphics, etc.
          Last edited by Bonekicker; 10th December 2017, 10:12 AM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Places like the US or even most of Europe have a climate. We have weather, and lots of it.

            Once, when I was young, I remember when it was raining out of the front of the house but it wasn’t raining out the back. Our house was right on the edge of the rain. How can you possibly forecast that?

            Steve

            Comment


            • #7
              I always know when it's going to rain. Mr Brahms starts limping.

              Comment


              • agutterfan
                agutterfan commented
                Editing a comment
                That made me laugh, Shirley. Sounds like a line from Are You Being Served? ( - I can just hear Mr Humphries saying "Oooh, that must play havoc with your love life".

            • #8
              Originally posted by Shirley Brahms View Post
              I always know when it's going to rain. Mr Brahms starts limping.

              ...and I can't open anything. My fingers seize up!

              Comment


              • #9
                It’s snowing now here in Morden (near Wimbledon) in SW London

                Steve

                Comment


                • #10
                  Originally posted by Steve Crook View Post
                  It’s snowing now here in Morden (near Wimbledon) in SW London

                  Steve
                  Trying to find a live webcam in Wimbledon, but I don't think there is one....

                  Comment


                  • #11
                    Why are they playing tennis?

                    Comment


                    • #12
                      Yeah, snow tennis.

                      (I'm presuming there should be a comma after "why".)
                      Last edited by Shirley Brahms; 10th December 2017, 01:25 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #13
                        Originally posted by Shirley Brahms View Post

                        Trying to find a live webcam in Wimbledon, but I don't think there is one....
                        I just looked out of the window to see it snowing. Sometime the old technology is the best

                        Steve

                        Comment


                        • #14
                          Originally posted by orpheum View Post
                          I was looking at the Met Office forecast forecast for the last couple of days.No worry I was told the snows not going to reach here.Look out the window this morning and snow is tumbling down.If they had got the forecast correct I would have gritted the forecourt last night.I also wouldn't have bought a ticket for the cinema tomorrow.The Met Office are useless.They need to get a new piece of seaweed.
                          I never take much notice to weather forecasts, they are usually wrong. I tend to make my own judgement when i look out of my window, or if it's really cold i get up a bit earlier for work, presuming i have to de-ice my car.

                          Comment


                          • #15
                            Originally posted by Steve Crook View Post

                            I just looked out of the window to see it snowing. Sometime the old technology is the best

                            Steve
                            Same here!

                            Comment

                            Working...
                            X