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  • #76
    Originally posted by Steve Crook View Post

    Still editing what you quote I see.

    Still being sneaky

    Steve
    Well, that's just spin, isn't it? All politicians do it, but who is it most associated with in this country? Why, Tony Blair, of course. Own up, Metro1962, you're Tony Blair, aren't you? You weren't born in 1962 at all, were you? We need a poll on this. "Should Metro1962 be banned for being Tony Blair?" But we don't have a poll option any more on this forum. Democracy truly is dead, just as Tony Blair/Metro1962 intended.

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by garth View Post

      Well, that's just spin, isn't it? All politicians do it, but who is it most associated with in this country? Why, Tony Blair, of course.
      Or any other of thousands of politicos, media people & many other members of the scumocracy

      At least I sign my posts with my real name.

      Steve


      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Steve Crook View Post

        Still editing what you quote I see.



        Steve
        That saves a lot of arguing with some idiots on here and also I am not rising to the bait that the idiots are wanting me too.

        Comment


        • #79
          Originally posted by Metro1962 View Post

          That saves a lot of arguing with some idiots on here and also I am not rising to the bait that the idiots are wanting me too.
          Now steady on, Tony!

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by garth View Post

            Now steady on, Tony!
            Sorry about that Boris but it had to be said!!

            Comment


            • Shirley Brahms
              Shirley Brahms commented
              Editing a comment
              No, it didn't.

          • #81
            Originally posted by Metro1962 View Post

            That saves a lot of arguing with some idiots on here and also I am not rising to the bait that the idiots are wanting me too.
            “Idiots”? You really do have a penchant for personal abuse don’t you?

            Comment


            • #82
              Three Scottish Judges have decided that the pr porogation is illegal.On to the Supreme Court next week.

              Comment


              • #83
                Originally posted by orpheum View Post
                Three Scottish Judges have decided that the prorogation is illegal.On to the Supreme Court next week.
                You can see that this is going to turn into Boris-gate and drag on and on. I well remember Watergate dominating the news in the 1970s. It dragged on for month after month, and the more I heard about it, the less I understood. A bit like Brexit with its boring jargon of meaningful votes, backstops, Lurpak Brexit, custard tart Brexit, etc. Next Boris will attempt to prorogue Scotland for daring to defy him and call in the military. Anyone caught eating a haggis will be denounced as a traitor and shot on sight.

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                • #84
                  Originally posted by garth View Post

                  You can see that this is going to turn into Boris-gate and drag on and on. I well remember Watergate dominating the news in the 1970s. It dragged on for month after month, and the more I heard about it, the less I understood. A bit like Brexit with its boring jargon of meaningful votes, backstops, Lurpak Brexit, custard tart Brexit, etc. Next Boris will attempt to prorogue Scotland for daring to defy him and call in the military. Anyone caught eating a haggis will be denounced as a traitor and shot on sight.
                  He could always build a wall a la Trump! Oh that's right, Hadrian beat him to it!

                  Comment


                  • #85
                    Someone mentioned Watergate - it was the coverup which led to the whole thing unravelling, not just the crimes. Which isnt so different from Brexit.

                    The Scottish Law Lords are clear - Johnson lied to the Queen. Although, as Jesse Philips tweeted, he uas lied to all the other women in his l8fe, so why should we be surprised? A government minister earlier suggsted that the Scottish judges were somehow biased, which set off a storm, since thats government essentially saying it does not respect the law when it doesnt like it.

                    yellowhammer has sort of emerged. Its just a summary, and has been redacted and rewritten to pretend that its a worst case scenario, which is the spin the BBC is repeating. In reality, Michael Gove lied to parliament last week when he said it wasnt a 'base scenario ' - although the journalist who broke the story in the Sunday Times tweeted while he was in fron of the committee that 'base scenario ' was on the cover.

                    However, its bad enough, with warnings of possible civil unrest, food shortages to hit the poorest, and NI business in particular will be devastated, plus security concerns. Leadsom trying to excuse not releasing fhe report, on the grounds that it might alarm people. Which is an excellent reason to release it - . And its not Kingfisher or Black Swan. They are still stonewalling.

                    And the government is thinking of using data fron us given to government, such as DVLA, etc, to deep mine it in a Brexit campaign.
                    And still hasnt released the Whatsapp and other messages between government officals and advisers.

                    and there are no signs of a deal or negotiation with the EU - its all a lie.

                    and thats Watergate. Someone who not only commited crimes and then covered it up, but then thought thery were above the law.

                    Comment


                    • #86
                      I thought a yellowhammer was just a bird

                      But it seems to be a "what if?" document that everyone in the media is treating like it's gospel

                      Nobody really knows anything!

                      None of the pundits in the newspapers, or on radio or TV. None of the politicians or other “experts”.

                      They’re all just guessing what the outcome might be or are just pushing their own strange agendas

                      Steve

                      Comment


                      • #87
                        Originally posted by Steve Crook View Post
                        But it seems to be a "what if?" document that everyone in the media is treating like it's gospel.......
                        The media like to use words such as "might", "could", "perhaps", "maybe", "possible", etc. when talking about different scenarios regarding Brexit.

                        I sincerely hope that everything works out fine in the end once we leave - either with a deal or not. However until that day finally arrives, the pundits and tabloid press in particular will carry on giving us their "expert" opinions.

                        Comment


                        • #88
                          Originally posted by Carl V View Post
                          I sincerely hope that everything works out fine in the end once we leave - either with a deal or not. However until that day finally arrives, the pundits and tabloid press in particular will carry on giving us their "expert" opinions.
                          Yes, when none of them really know anything. But that never stops them all giving their opinion - carefully presented as “facts”

                          Steve

                          Comment


                          • #89
                            Originally posted by Steve Crook View Post

                            Nobody really knows anything!

                            None of the pundits in the newspapers, or on radio or TV. None of the politicians or other “experts”.

                            They’re all just guessing what the outcome might be or are just pushing their own strange agendas

                            Steve
                            Exactly. I've been saying this for quite some time now and the worrying thing is that the "experts" themselves have in some cases had to come forward and admit they got their predictions completely wrong, meaning that cynics who previously took their forecasts with at least a pinch of salt now blatantly ignore them.

                            Worse than all the guesswork is what happens next... those who have made up their minds and fallen into either camp (broadly leaving or remaining - never mind soft/hard customs union/backstop etc permutations) will brazenly cherry pick through the (media distorted?) "facts" in their conscious or subconscious way to make the outcomes fit their mindset. And no one will ever be able to "prove" that anything was truly a good or bad idea, or that things wouldn't have turned out "better" or "worse" if things had unfolded their or their opponents' way, because we can't simultaneously go down both forks in any road and compare. I still have an ultra-Europhyllic Remainer friend who denies that joining the single currency would have been a disaster because "If we'd got involved we would have ensured it all turned out differently"...and ironically he's the one who always accuses my ardent anti-EU Brexiteer pal of being arrogant in overestimating the UK's power and influence!?!?

                            I think many have reached the conclusion that what will be will be, there will be no refreshing golden age nor will it be the end of the world, it will be what it is - some will profit, some will suffer - and history teaches us there is rarely justice in how that splits.
                            Last edited by Tonch; 12th September 2019, 03:21 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #90
                              But it seems to be a "what if?" document that everyone in the media is treating like it's gospel

                              Nobody really knows anything!

                              None of the pundits in the newspapers, or on radio or TV. None of the politicians or other “experts”.

                              They’re all just guessing what the outcome might be or are just pushing their own strange agendas
                              Ignore the media (although Faisal Islam, now with the BBC, really does know what he is talking about, and Peter Foster of the Telegraph is actually very good as well), listen instead to actual experts, like trade experts, logistics specialists and people whose businesses depend on . They dont have a 'mindset', just reality. The last three posts do show a mindset, which is to perhaps explain away the very real dangers as 'just a point of view'.


                              If you are midway over the Atlantic in an airliner, and the fuel taps are switched off, then you need no expertise at all to assume that within a relatively short period of time, you will get your feet wet. You can argue its a point of view, or believe that everything is going to be fine, but ultimately, physics does not care what you think - gravity and drag will do their thing. Thats Brexit - reality will do its thing, whatever anyone whats to believe. Its like 'for want of a nail' - if you stop doing something, that has an impact.

                              Companies examine their businesses for vulnerabilities and risks every day, and there are whole companies whose job it is evaluate worst case scenarios. They work for airlines, supermarkets, logistical and technical support etc. They deal with realities, because money talks. And the various businesses and trade associations have been doing that, although sadly thanks to caution, PR, the belief that quiet lobbying would do the trick and the desire to not annoy or alarm customers, they have been less vocal than they should have been. And then there are the government Non Disclosure Agreements...

                              So who do I take notice of?

                              Food

                              I listen to people like the Food and Drink Federation, whose CEO said that a no-deal Brexit would lead to 'a grisly crisis'. Or the British Retail Federation, who said to Parliament that '“We modelled that with our members who have told us there will be disruption to fresh food.

                              And I should especially listen to my ultimate boss, the Chair of the John Lewis Partnership, who has just had to announce the first ever loss in its history. He said:

                              “The two biggest impacts on us are fresh food supply and consumer confidence. We sell a lot of fresh produce, if we haven’t got it we can’t sell it. If you are seeing stuff on the news about queues and shortages, are you going to go and splash out £1,500 on a widescreen TV? The answer is probably no.”
                              I am literally the person whose job it is to get people to splash out on that £1500 TV, and at the moment, they are not doing it as often as I or anyone I work with would like. And I can understand why - if you are stockpiling food, a new TV is isnt top of your list of priorities.

                              As for fresh produce, the bagged salad in my fridge is likely to have come from Spain. Charlie Mayfield pointed out a couple of years ago that if there is a delay in getting those salad leaves from Spain, because the Calais/Dover is slowed, that bag of salad potentially has 3 days cut off its shelf life. Thats a hit to the bottom line. I was clearing out my fridge tonight - the peppers come from the Netherlands (as most do in the UK), as do most cut flowers. The mushrooms from Ireland, as did the beef mince. The strawberrys, the raspberries and the carrots were UK, but who picked and prepped them is another matter.

                              Waitrose and Coop are stocking piling (and I bet the others are), but that cant last long term, and that costs money. And there will be lots of extra paperwork - the Wine and Spirits Association is really worried. The Scotch Whiskey Association is worried as well - thats now a billion a year export industry, and they are scared about US tariffs too. Of course, if we were part of a big trade group...

                              The former head of Sainsburys said much the same -
                              'Let’s be clear, there’s about 10 days of food in the UK in total.“There’s obviously a lot more than that in packaged goods and in frozen. So a very small number of days in fresh food. The kind of disruption that the government is talking about today, 50 per cent of vehicles being held up, will lead to gaps on the shelves within a week in the UK, significant gaps.Because something between 30 and 40 per cent of our produce at that time of the year is coming from the European Union.”

                              Manufacturing

                              I am listening to the car manufacturers and their industry body. Honda, Ford, Nissan and Land Rover are all moving production or not producing certain models in the UK. BMW said it can move production of the Mini out of the UK., and could move Rolls Royce out of the UK as well. PSA group, who now owns Vauxhall/Opel is even more blunt. They have said they will close a plant if Brexit makes it unprofitable (it will), and their boss likened Brexit to a 'train crash'

                              Airbus have made their feelings known very publically, whilst Rolls Royce Engines will have to ship engines to Germany for certification - how long before manufacturing shifts as well? Manufacturing generally is suffering, with EU and other buyers already starting to cut out UK components if possible, to avoid rules of origin problems and disruption.

                              Health

                              The NHS is already underfunded - 9 years of 'efficiency savings' due to austerity has meant perhaps a 10% shortfall in funding - this is with a £145bn budget. Its also straining to get enough qualified ataff - my NHS induction last month said that if every school leaver in the UK in July had immediately joined the NHS, 50% of posts would still be unfilled. A lot of that workforce is made up of people from outside the UK, particularly the EU. Brexit makes it a lot harder to recruit right now.

                              In a crash out Brexit, logistical chains would come under strain, and thus drug supplies, as the BMJ points out. Being outside the EU would probably slow down research and approval of new drugs.

                              The BMA says Brexit would be 'catastophic'. And radiotheraphy might be impacted as well, because the isotopes needed often have a short half life, and in some cases, only a six hour window where they can be effectively used.

                              Actual Experts

                              There are lots of other experts and sectors. I look at what David Henig (former UKgovt trade civil servant), Bridget Laffan (EU Uni prof), Dmitry Grozoubinski (former Aussie trade negotiator), Chris Grey (prof. at Royal Holloway, who writes an excellent blog), Fabian Zuleeg (head of European Policy Centre), Allie Renison (head of trade policy at the Institute of Directors), Jean-Claude PIRIS (former head EU legal Service), Steve Bullock (former UK trade negotiator with EU), Chris Kendall (EU foreign policy guy), Simon Fraser (former perm Sect. at FO), Sam Lowe (trade policy at CER), Peter Ungphakorn (18 year veteran of WTO) and Steve Peers. Ciaran the euro courier is great - he actually crosses the borders, so he knows what he is talking about.

                              UK in a Changing Europe is good, and Ananad Menon is very much worth reading. Infacts gives you actual facts that you can use.

                              I very much follow james O'Brian, Jo Maugham, Edwin Hayward and Jim Cornelius, Ian Dunt, Brexitshambles, Alex Andeau and Otto English (very interesting stuff about the Brexit Party), and lots of others. And Carole Cadwallder has been battling to get to the truth for ages - just tonight a very interesting piece about the billions being put by key backers of Brexit and Johnson to short the pound. And the lovely Nina Schtick should be back soon (just had a baby).

                              These people are not guessing about Brexit - they are using data. And a lot of that data is easy to find, because its on the EU's website - and has been for a long time. Again, actual experts. Look at what they are saying, not what the spin is. Yellowhammer is not a worse case scenario, and its not guesswork.



                              Comment


                              • Ian Fryer
                                Ian Fryer commented
                                Editing a comment
                                Thank you for this. The anti-intellectual trend towards ignoring the advice of scientists and experts is deeply disturbing. Also it's often downright dishonest. Wetherspoons boss Tim Martin had an audience booing 'clever people who produce 500 page reports that nobody understands'. Tim Martin has a law degree and understands perfectly well. This will end very badly indeed for all of us.
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